Update on my previous post....

Bruton Smith has decided to "listen to the fans" and will take the bulldozers to Bristol Motor Speedway once again. (Read the story here - opens in new window) Although he didn't specifically say so, I assume this means the track will return to its previous constant gradient high-banked corners rather than today's progressively banked corner configuration. This would return the racing to the former one-groove style and in theory promote more drama.

What do I think of the change? I've seen the several races in both configurations and I'm definitely torn about it. I do like the new style of racing, as it is definitely higher quality from a racing 'purist' perspective, with side-by-side battles going on all through the field for the entire race. Part of me would like for it to be given a chance to succeed, but...

The truth is I never heard Nascar fans clamoring for a change in the racing style at Bristol, myself included. The real problem with Bristol was NOT the one-groove racing style that typically resulted in lots of caution flags and torn up race cars. The real problem was and still is 'The Chase'. When Nascar's version of the playoffs put Bristol just three weeks away from the start of the Chase, the world famous August race was doomed to fail. With a race that made its mark with fender bending aggressive action falling that close to the start of the playoffs, almost no driver was going to be willing to push the issue.

Drivers locked into the playoffs just drove around. Drivers just outside the Chase didn't gamble to try to win, they just made sure they had a decent day. Drivers well outside the Chase stayed out of the way, not wanting to feel the wrath of being the one that knocked Dale Jr, Jimmie Johnson, or Kyle Busch out of the playoffs. The race as we knew it was no more.

What Bristol really needed was progressive scoring rather than progressive banking. The only way to bring some excitement to the last 5 or 6 races of the 'regular season' is by making them progressively more lucrative in terms of Championship points or playoff opportunities. I'm afraid the change Bruton is pursuing will not fix the real root cause of the issues that plague Bristol attendance. It may help the Spring race a bit, but the August race will continue to be a dog, and leave old timers like me longing for a good last lap bump-and-run.

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Nascar is certainly showing signs of concern that about half of the people attending the race at one of the premier tracks on the circuit were disguised as empty seats. Bruton Smith, owner of Tennessee's iconic Bristol Motor Speedway, is now considering changes to the track.

I'm a huge Nascar fan and Bristol is/was one of my favorite tracks. It was where I saw my first live Nascar race back in 2001, won by Tony Stewart. Back then, the lack of 'progressive banking' meant there was only one fast way around the track, and that was by nudging the car in front of you out of the preferred line on the bottom. If you wanted to win, you were going to have to ruffle the feathers of the driver in front of you, or as Dale Earnhardt put it..."rattle his cage".

The aggressive racing style needed to succeed at the track created legend, and cemented Bristol at the top of most Nascar fan's bucket list. Only those drivers that had no issue being removed from their competitor's Christmas lists could get the job done on the tough 1/2 mile...legends like Cale Yarborough, Darrell Waltrip, Dale Earnhardt, Rusty Wallace, and Jeff Gordon. The average race was filled with caution flags, bent sheet metal, and bent feelings. Infield fights were standard fare.

Then came 2007. The new progressive banking in the famous high-banked corners made for technically much better racing..with lap after lap of side-by-side action. Caution flags and bent fenders plummeted. Last Sunday's race was excellent, with eventual winner Brad Kesolowski and Matt Kenseth battling it down to the wire. But I still felt something was missing, and apparently Bruton Smith did too. 

After the race Speed analyst Kyle Petty proclaimed "this is great racing, not wrecking. If you want to see wrecking go watch monster trucks". Yet I know the TV crews sense the same thing we long-time Nascar fans sense, something is missing. It may be technically better, but is it more memorable? Now Bristol seems a lot like many other tracks on the circuit, with good generic racing and no big drama. Yet the TV networks continually promote every Bristol race like it's 2001-style Bristol instead of the more clinical 2012 style.

They should keep a close eye on those monster truck ratings.

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If you're like me and you watch and listen to the endless parade of football talk shows on the TV and radio, undoubtedly you've heard the "who's the best player ever" argument over and over and over again. It makes for great debate and keeps a lot of folks employed and paying top tax rates. Everybody loves a good argument. Endless statistical analysis is used to dissect every aspect of the top player's games, be they running backs, wide receivers, linebackers, or quarterbacks.

Next weekend Tom Brady takes the field for his 5th Super Bowl appearance. He'll have a chance to win his 4th, putting him in select company as an NFL starting QB. Is he the best QB ever? I'm a big fan of Tom and what he's done, but to me he could win 100 more and would never top my #1, Joe Montana.

Does that mean I'm right? Nope. Just because I write a blog doesn't make me any more right than the guys that have microphones in front of them on the TV or radio. The beauty of it is.... it doesn't really matter what you think.

To my eyes, nobody will ever be better than Joe Cool. To my Dad's eyes, nobody will ever be better than Johnny Unitas. My Dad is just as right as I am. Someone 10 years older than me might argue for weeks that Terry Bradshaw is the best ever, or Roger Staubach, or Fran Tarkenton. Ask somebody 10 years older than my Dad and you might get Sammy Baugh or Otto Graham. And to you, probably 15-20 years younger than me, nobody will be better than Brady...or Peyton Manning, or Drew Brees, or maybe even Tom's Sunday adversary, Eli Manning.

My suggestion..don't worry about it. It doesn't matter. Just enjoy watching the guys YOU think are the best YOU'VE ever seen, and leave the arguing to the politicians.

Enjoy the game, it should be another great one!

P.S.

For what it's worth, here is the unscientific list of Dan's all-time top 10. No mountain of statistics used, just an 'eyeball test' list through my 40 years of watching the NFL. You won't find guys that my eyes didn't watch 'live' anywhere on the list, such as Unitas, Namath, Starr, Dawson, or Baugh. 

10) Jim Kelly

9) John Elway

8) Dan Fouts

7) Peyton Manning

6) Troy Aikman

5) Roger Staubach

4) Terry Bradshaw

3) Tom Brady

2) Dan Marino

1) Joe Montana

Honorable mention: Ken Stabler, Bernie Kosar, Steve Young, Warren Moon, Brett Favre, Boomer Esiason, Jim Plunkett, Drew Brees, Eli Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Doug Williams, Joe Theismann, Kurt Warner, Donovan McNabb 

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Two down, one to go. Last weekend, much to many people's dismay (including my son's), the explosive defending Champion Green Bay Packers and their marginal defense were eliminated rather easily by the rejuvenated New York Giants. The high-flying New Orleans Saints went down the same week. The biggest reason, defense and lack thereof.

Thanks to rule modifications over the past few years that greatly favor offense, the NFL has gotten themselves into bit of conundrum. For 17 regular season weeks, every ticky-tack hit and insignificant bump a defensive player makes in the secondary or on a quarterback brings an immediate flag. During the regular year it is an extremely rare event that an offense is not rewarded for throwing an incomplete pass with a flag on the defense. Extremely rare. Search your feelings Luke, you know it to be true!

Then comes the post-season. The NFL would never admit it publicly, but I've watched enough football in my nearly half-century to know for sure that post-season games are officiated differently. Gone are the infuriating and game-changing ticky-tack interference and illegal contact calls. Heck, you can almost hit the quarterback without a flag! The regular season brand of ball wouldn't fly when so many of those calls have such an extreme impact on the outcome of a game.

So what does that lead to? Encroachment of the long-dormant defenses. I feel very sure the NFL really wanted Green Bay vs. New England, but I'm afraid they are about to get Baltimore vs. San Francisco. It would appear offense gets you to the playoffs, but you better pack your defense for when the rules change in January.

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I guess if you live long enough you're bound to see everything, right? The NFL playoffs are about to get underway this weekend, and there is the possibility of a matchup I never thought I'd live to see.  

To the delight of NFL executives, the top seeded teams in both conferences are unstoppable offensive machines. The AFC features the thrilling New England Patriots and the surgeon Tom Brady as the top overall seed. The NFC sports the defending Super Bowl Champion Green Bay Packers in the top spot, with the deadly accurate Aaron Rodgers at the helm of the offense. If the Packers can't win the NFC and earn a chance to repeat as Champs, the execs would be just fine with the new all-time yardage leader Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints making the trip to Indianapolis.

Imagine this...if New England makes it to the big game to face Green Bay, we will be witnessing the #32 (and last) ranked DEFENSE in the NFL facing the #31 ranked defense. This is something I never thought I'd live to see, but with the current rules making it nearly impossible to play solid defense and the epidemic of hideously bad officiating, it is (from my perspective) unfortunately the wave of the future. But from the perspective of NFL executives it would be like Christmas in February, and probably would be the largest TV audience to ever watch.

My opinion...I don't think the Earth will spin off its axis and the planets will remain aligned. The inevitable will happen and one or both of those teams will be 'upset' on the way to the champagne. Defense may not win championships anymore in today's 'pass-happy don't hit anybody too hard' NFL, but I still think you have to play at least a LITTLE defense.

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I thought this was interesting...the DPS rankings in graphic/table form. With these pictures you have a quick vertical view of your favorite conference and compare how the rankings of all of the teams within that conference stack up against teams from other conferences. It helps draw a quick conclusion on the strength of your conference, and remember as always no opinions were used to create these rankings...just math.

Note: These are the DPS rankings prior to the bowl games. The final ranking will come out after the bowl games are completed.

The top 50: (click on each picture to expand and view)

The next 50:

The bottom 20:

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Merry Christmas and God Bless us everyone! My gift: the annual link to the greatest 1:18 in the history of television.

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Trivia question: Without looking it up, can you tell me which team scored the most points on D-IA "National Championship" contender Alabama Crimson Tide in 2011?

Answer: No, not Arkansas, LSU, Auburn, Florida, or Penn State, but rather D-IAA ("FCS") playoff contender Georgia Southern Eagles, with 21 points.

The 11-2 Eagles take on 12-1 North Dakota State in the D-IAA ("FCS") Championship Semifinals this Saturday afternoon at 2:30PM ET. You can rest assured that Erin Andrews and the College Gameday crew won't be there, but that won't stop me from watching the dramatic action between these two fine programs. Lose and you go home, win and you get to play again.

In the other real playoff game, 11-2 Montana University takes on 13-0 and #1 ranked Sam Houston State on Friday night at 8 PM. Southland Champs Sam Houston weren't given a free pass to the big game despite their undefeated record and top ranking. They will have to earn their way to the Championship.

Yep..decided on the field, the way it should be...a novel concept.

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Four games were played last week in round #1 of the mock DPS playoffs. Here are the results:

#5 West Virginia 17

#12 Kansas State 31

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#6 TCU 34

#11 Michigan 38

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#7 Alabama 24

#10 Oklahoma 10

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#8 Boise State 45

#9 Stanford 42

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Round #2 Matchups:

#1 LSU (13-0) vs #8 Kansas State (11-2)

#2 Oklahoma State (11-1) vs #7 Michigan (11-2)

#3 Wisconsin (11-2) vs #6 Boise State (12-1)

#4 Oregon (11-2) vs #5 Alabama (12-1)

Nobody would watch those games, huh?

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It would appear that support is potentially growning for a 'plus one' solution in D-I college football, as discussed in this article:

Final Four article at Rivals.com (opens in new window)

Good, but simply put, not good enough.

If the original 'bowls and vote only' system was a horse-and-carriage and the BCS gave us a Model T, then in my opinion the 'plus one' format hits somewhere around a Yugo. Yeah, it's a car and an improvement over the previous car. It's more comfortable than the old model, more reliable, can travel further from home base. But would you buy it to send your daughter to college in? Not a chance. You want something that won't need maintenance the minute she pulls out of the driveway.

The 1985 Yugo GV - on the esteemed list of all-time bad cars

The premier sport in the United States of America deserves the premier ending. I've always thought that D-I football was a fantastic movie with a horrific ending. Good enough for constant re-runs on TNT, but not good enough to make the top spot in your all-time greats collection.

My belief has always been that any of the top few teams in any of the top conferences and some others from not-so-top conferences could come out with a championship if given a chance. Four teams selected with a large voter bias simply isn't enough. Admittedly the DPS has slightly too many teams (with 12), but I can't go as low as four and feel that is acceptable. Eight is perfect number for me to eliminate biases and get the most deserving teams a shot. A top four this season would leave out high quality conference Champs from the Big Ten and PAC-12, in my opinion teams that would make some noise in a winner-take-all tournament.

So I'll be somewhat happy when they deliver my Yugo, but know for sure that I'll never live to see that Mercedes SLR in the driveway.

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Yep, even with my wiz-bang computer ranking system, there still would be controversy given my final DPS rankings and seedings for the playoffs.

First, congratulations to my alma mater Clemson for getting up off the mat and beating Virginia Tech for our first ACC Championship in 20 years! As expected, we did not move up enough in the DPS to make the playoffs, but it was a great final effort. 

Coach Dabo Swinney gets a Gatorade bath after Clemson's 38-10 win over VA Tech. (photo from The Washington Post)

Now to the controversy. With only one game left in the regular season (Army vs. Navy), the playoff seedings for the 2011 Division-I National Football Championship Tournament are essentially set. The Army-Navy game is not expected to cause any movement in the seedings.

As mentioned in a prior post, the top 4 seeds get the week off and are supposed to go to Champions or top-15 ranked teams from Top 5 conferences that played 13 games. Unfortunately, only 3 teams qualified, so based on their overall #2 ranking Oklahoma State was given the coveted #2 seed and an extra week off. That would mean to win the tournament, they would only have to play fifteen games to every other potential champ's sixteen. Once the conference realignment mess gets sorted out, I expect this problem to be fixed. 

Scrappy Southern Miss, winners of #8-rated Conference USA, barely missed the playoffs because of a #16 final ranking. Next year, replace your game against Southeast Louisiana with a game vs. a team from a real conference and you will MAKE the playoffs! That's another beauty of the DPS, there is a real cost to scheduling cupcakes unless you're in a top-5 conference.

Here are the playoffs:

The top 4 seeds, and a coveted week off, go to the following Champs:

#1 L.S.U.(13-0) - Duh. If anybody has earned an immediate free pass to the championship game it would be the 2011 SEC Champs, but they will have to earn it like everyone else with back to back to back wins over premier teams.

#2 Oklahoma State (11-1) - An extra week off for the Big XII Champs because nobody else qualified to take their first round seeding.

#3 Wisconsin (11-2) - Congratulations to Wisconsin for winning the inaugural Big-10 Championship game. You earned a chance to play for the BIG rosey prize!

#4 Oregon (11-2) - PAC-12 Champ Oregon, who wants to play them??? Any takers?? I didn't think so. In the real world of the DPS, you must if you want to earn the title.

The D-I Playoffs, Round 1:

#5 West Virginia (9-3) vs. #12 Kansas State (10-2) - West Virginia jumped 3 spots in the DPS this week to overtake Cincinnati for the Big East spot in the D-I playoffs. The Big East edged out the ACC for conference strength, meaning West Virginia took Clemson's spot at the party despite their #21 final ranking. Kansas State finished off a good year by beating scrappy Iowa State and barely earning a spot due to their #12 DPS ranking.  

#6 TCU (10-2) vs. #11 Michigan (10-2) - Who wouldn't love watching this matchup? The Mountain West didn't get in on conference strength (#7 behind the ACC), but their Champion TCU was ranked high enough in the final DPS standings at #11. Improved Michigan and Shoelace get a chance to get back to National prominence a year or two before their time. 

#7 Alabama (11-1) vs. #10 Oklahoma (9-3) - Alabama's 3-point home loss to LSU was costly, as they now have to earn their way back to the championship game the hard way. Oklahoma finished with a thud but remained very high in the DPS standings due to their tough schedule and the strength of the #1 ranked Big XII Conference. I don't make this stuff up, it was what the numbers said.

#8 Boise State (11-1) vs. #9 Stanford (11-1) - Another fantastic (and meaningful) matchup, with two future NFL quarterbacks battling for something real. Could MWC runner-up Boise State really play with the big boys? Their only loss was a 1-point loss to MWC Champ and playoff qualifier TCU. With this system there is no need for conjecture, if Kellen Moore and his Boise State teammates are good enough their play will speak for itself. Andrew Luck gets the big stage to showcase his ability to carry his team through the 2nd season.

I don't know about you, but these meaningful matchups are something I'd MUCH rather see than the parade of exhibition games that are coming our way. There isn't a lot of agreement from SEC country right now, but that's ok...even SEC fans know it's the right thing to do. In the mean time I'll continue dreaming that someday we'll get the post-season I've been waiting for for forty-something years. 

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LSU is the best!
by: olddanwalking

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I try to point out life's injustices, so that is why college football makes such good fodder. Today's case in point, the SEC football perception.

Now don't get me wrong, I'm a big fan of SEC football. In fact, I would be more than happy if my alma mater was invited to join the conference. The recruiting advantages would be immediate and the weekly matchups would be awesome. But when I continually hear the annointed experts glean on about how the SEC is "clearly dominating colllege football" and is "by far and away the best football conference", I have to say "hold the phone cowboy". The numbers don't bear that out. One conference is right there with you SEC...the Big 12.

Yes, the very same Big XII that only has X teams, is currently above you in DPS out-of-conference strength ranking. To start, the Big 12 has a 90% winning percentage in out-of-conference matchups vs. the SEC's 87.5%. (Overall record 27-3 vs. the SEC's 42-6)

Quality OOC wins:

For the Big 12: Iowa, UConn, Pac12 South Champ UCLA, MAC East Champ Ohio, MAC West Champ Northern Illinois, Tulsa, FSU, SMU, Mountain West Champ TCU, Nevada

For the SEC: ACC Atlantic Champ Clemson, UConn, Wake Forest, Cincinnati, GA Tech, PAC-12 probable Champ Oregon, Big East probable Champ West Virginia, Penn State, Texas A&M, LA Tech

OOC Losses:

Big-12: Arizona State, GA Tech, Arkansas

SEC: FSU, Louisville, Boise State, Clemson, BYU, LA Tech

Basically, it's about a wash between these two very good football conferences. So why so many opinions in favor of a dominate SEC? Easy, the system continues to feed on itself. The human pollsters will not forget the past seven years where an SEC team was given a chance in a one-game show and delivered. They won't forget a dominate national TV performance by LSU over Oregon in week 1. They have, however, forgotten a dominate performance by Boise State over SEC East Champ Georgia that same week. The will forget that SEC 3rd-best Arkansas escaped by the skin of their teeth from a Big-12 6th best Texas A&M. The mind forgets and biases..the computer does not. A playoff continues to be required, even in a year like 2011 when one team seems to be "clearly superior" to everybody. It may be true, but it may in fact, be only in your biased memory.

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DPS Update for Week 13 - Conference strength shakeup...

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I hate this time of year in college football...with all the so-called experts trying to wax poetic about how one division 1-A (a.k.a. FBS) team's unbeaten record, one, or two losses are CLEARLY more impressive than another team's unbeaten record, one, or two losses. Ridiculous. That's one reason I created the "DeSetto Playoff System" computer ranking in 2010, or the DPS. The DPS was designed to eliminate all vestage of opinions and use only facts to select the seeds for a 12 team D-1 college football playoff. In the coming weeks, all seeding will come into clear view.

- The top 4 seeds will be rewarded with a week off and a home first round game. They will be champions of top 5 conferences that played championship games. The top 5 is determined by the computer based on strength of non-conference wins by teams within those conferences. 

- Currently the Big 12 is the #1 rated conference. This is an un-arguable FACT, not my opinion. Their champion would not receive a bye however because they do not play a championship game.

- As expected the SEC is #2 in conference strength, followed by the Big 10, the Big East (surprise), and the ACC. The PAC 12 is close behind in the #6 position.

- Seedings 5-12 for the first round are based roughly on highest position in the DPS computer ranking, with some notable potential exceptions.

- Champions of the top 5 conferences at season's end receive automatic bids and the highest available seeding for round #1. If you're a Champion of a non-top 5 conference, you'll need to be within the top 15 of the DPS ranking at season's end to qualify for the playoffs.

As the season finishes up I'll post the final rankings and teams and seeds as they would've qualified for the playoffs. In the mean time, fans will get all gaa-gaa over qualifying for a relatively meaningless bowl game when they could've been treated to a potential shot at a true National Championship.

For example - hey Wisconsin fans, your game against Penn State this week would not only be for a shot at a Big 10 title and a Rose Bowl berth, but rather a shot at the Big 10 title and a top 5 seed in the National Championship tournament. That would truly be worth a bouquet of roses.

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You can read all about my hiking hobby on my companion site, olddanwalking.com.

Hope to get started soon. Have a great day...really.

Dan DeSetto

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