DanDeSetto.com

DanDeSetto.com

Dan DeSetto's profile  //  Glad you could stop by DanDeSetto.com to listen to me whine. If you're looking for my hiking-only site, visit www.olddanwalking.com.

God Bless...

Jan 1 / 5:00pm

The DPS in quick view form

I thought this was interesting...the DPS rankings in graphic/table form. With these pictures you have a quick vertical view of your favorite conference and compare how the rankings of all of the teams within that conference stack up against teams from other conferences. It helps draw a quick conclusion on the strength of your conference, and remember as always no opinions were used to create these rankings...just math.

Note: These are the DPS rankings prior to the bowl games. The final ranking will come out after the bowl games are completed.

The top 50: (click on each picture to expand and view)

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The next 50:

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The bottom 20:

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Filed under  //  College Football   The DPS  
Dec 13 / 8:31pm

Update on the REAL playoffs

Trivia question: Without looking it up, can you tell me which team scored the most points on D-IA "National Championship" contender Alabama Crimson Tide in 2011?

Answer: No, not Arkansas, LSU, Auburn, Florida, or Penn State, but rather D-IAA ("FCS") playoff contender Georgia Southern Eagles, with 21 points.

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The 11-2 Eagles take on 12-1 North Dakota State in the D-IAA ("FCS") Championship Semifinals this Saturday afternoon at 2:30PM ET. You can rest assured that Erin Andrews and the College Gameday crew won't be there, but that won't stop me from watching the dramatic action between these two fine programs. Lose and you go home, win and you get to play again.

In the other real playoff game, 11-2 Montana University takes on 13-0 and #1 ranked Sam Houston State on Friday night at 8 PM. Southland Champs Sam Houston weren't given a free pass to the big game despite their undefeated record and top ranking. They will have to earn their way to the Championship.

Yep..decided on the field, the way it should be...a novel concept.

Filed under  //  College Football  
Dec 12 / 9:11pm

Mock playoffs - Round #2

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Four games were played last week in round #1 of the mock DPS playoffs. Here are the results:

#5 West Virginia 17

#12 Kansas State 31

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#6 TCU 34

#11 Michigan 38

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#7 Alabama 24

#10 Oklahoma 10

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#8 Boise State 45

#9 Stanford 42

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Round #2 Matchups:

#1 LSU (13-0) vs #8 Kansas State (11-2)

#2 Oklahoma State (11-1) vs #7 Michigan (11-2)

#3 Wisconsin (11-2) vs #6 Boise State (12-1)

#4 Oregon (11-2) vs #5 Alabama (12-1)

Nobody would watch those games, huh?

Filed under  //  College Football   The DPS  
Dec 10 / 8:12am

Football Final Four - Still just a Yugo

It would appear that support is potentially growning for a 'plus one' solution in D-I college football, as discussed in this article:

Final Four article at Rivals.com (opens in new window)

Good, but simply put, not good enough.

If the original 'bowls and vote only' system was a horse-and-carriage and the BCS gave us a Model T, then in my opinion the 'plus one' format hits somewhere around a Yugo. Yeah, it's a car and an improvement over the previous car. It's more comfortable than the old model, more reliable, can travel further from home base. But would you buy it to send your daughter to college in? Not a chance. You want something that won't need maintenance the minute she pulls out of the driveway.

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The 1985 Yugo GV - on the esteemed list of all-time bad cars

The premier sport in the United States of America deserves the premier ending. I've always thought that D-I football was a fantastic movie with a horrific ending. Good enough for constant re-runs on TNT, but not good enough to make the top spot in your all-time greats collection.

My belief has always been that any of the top few teams in any of the top conferences and some others from not-so-top conferences could come out with a championship if given a chance. Four teams selected with a large voter bias simply isn't enough. Admittedly the DPS has slightly too many teams (with 12), but I can't go as low as four and feel that is acceptable. Eight is perfect number for me to eliminate biases and get the most deserving teams a shot. A top four this season would leave out high quality conference Champs from the Big Ten and PAC-12, in my opinion teams that would make some noise in a winner-take-all tournament.

So I'll be somewhat happy when they deliver my Yugo, but know for sure that I'll never live to see that Mercedes SLR in the driveway.

Filed under  //  College Football  
Dec 4 / 11:13am

Playoff matchups are set, with a little controversy

Yep, even with my wiz-bang computer ranking system, there still would be controversy given my final DPS rankings and seedings for the playoffs.

First, congratulations to my alma mater Clemson for getting up off the mat and beating Virginia Tech for our first ACC Championship in 20 years! As expected, we did not move up enough in the DPS to make the playoffs, but it was a great final effort. 

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Coach Dabo Swinney gets a Gatorade bath after Clemson's 38-10 win over VA Tech. (photo from The Washington Post)

Now to the controversy. With only one game left in the regular season (Army vs. Navy), the playoff seedings for the 2011 Division-I National Football Championship Tournament are essentially set. The Army-Navy game is not expected to cause any movement in the seedings.

As mentioned in a prior post, the top 4 seeds get the week off and are supposed to go to Champions or top-15 ranked teams from Top 5 conferences that played 13 games. Unfortunately, only 3 teams qualified, so based on their overall #2 ranking Oklahoma State was given the coveted #2 seed and an extra week off. That would mean to win the tournament, they would only have to play fifteen games to every other potential champ's sixteen. Once the conference realignment mess gets sorted out, I expect this problem to be fixed. 

Scrappy Southern Miss, winners of #8-rated Conference USA, barely missed the playoffs because of a #16 final ranking. Next year, replace your game against Southeast Louisiana with a game vs. a team from a real conference and you will MAKE the playoffs! That's another beauty of the DPS, there is a real cost to scheduling cupcakes unless you're in a top-5 conference.

Here are the playoffs:

The top 4 seeds, and a coveted week off, go to the following Champs:

#1 L.S.U.(13-0) - Duh. If anybody has earned an immediate free pass to the championship game it would be the 2011 SEC Champs, but they will have to earn it like everyone else with back to back to back wins over premier teams.

#2 Oklahoma State (11-1) - An extra week off for the Big XII Champs because nobody else qualified to take their first round seeding.

#3 Wisconsin (11-2) - Congratulations to Wisconsin for winning the inaugural Big-10 Championship game. You earned a chance to play for the BIG rosey prize!

#4 Oregon (11-2) - PAC-12 Champ Oregon, who wants to play them??? Any takers?? I didn't think so. In the real world of the DPS, you must if you want to earn the title.

The D-I Playoffs, Round 1:

#5 West Virginia (9-3) vs. #12 Kansas State (10-2) - West Virginia jumped 3 spots in the DPS this week to overtake Cincinnati for the Big East spot in the D-I playoffs. The Big East edged out the ACC for conference strength, meaning West Virginia took Clemson's spot at the party despite their #21 final ranking. Kansas State finished off a good year by beating scrappy Iowa State and barely earning a spot due to their #12 DPS ranking.  

#6 TCU (10-2) vs. #11 Michigan (10-2) - Who wouldn't love watching this matchup? The Mountain West didn't get in on conference strength (#7 behind the ACC), but their Champion TCU was ranked high enough in the final DPS standings at #11. Improved Michigan and Shoelace get a chance to get back to National prominence a year or two before their time. 

#7 Alabama (11-1) vs. #10 Oklahoma (9-3) - Alabama's 3-point home loss to LSU was costly, as they now have to earn their way back to the championship game the hard way. Oklahoma finished with a thud but remained very high in the DPS standings due to their tough schedule and the strength of the #1 ranked Big XII Conference. I don't make this stuff up, it was what the numbers said.

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#8 Boise State (11-1) vs. #9 Stanford (11-1) - Another fantastic (and meaningful) matchup, with two future NFL quarterbacks battling for something real. Could MWC runner-up Boise State really play with the big boys? Their only loss was a 1-point loss to MWC Champ and playoff qualifier TCU. With this system there is no need for conjecture, if Kellen Moore and his Boise State teammates are good enough their play will speak for itself. Andrew Luck gets the big stage to showcase his ability to carry his team through the 2nd season.

I don't know about you, but these meaningful matchups are something I'd MUCH rather see than the parade of exhibition games that are coming our way. There isn't a lot of agreement from SEC country right now, but that's ok...even SEC fans know it's the right thing to do. In the mean time I'll continue dreaming that someday we'll get the post-season I've been waiting for for forty-something years. 

Filed under  //  College Football   The DPS  
Nov 29 / 8:02pm

The Big 12 vs. The SEC -- by the numbers

I try to point out life's injustices, so that is why college football makes such good fodder. Today's case in point, the SEC football perception.

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Now don't get me wrong, I'm a big fan of SEC football. In fact, I would be more than happy if my alma mater was invited to join the conference. The recruiting advantages would be immediate and the weekly matchups would be awesome. But when I continually hear the annointed experts glean on about how the SEC is "clearly dominating colllege football" and is "by far and away the best football conference", I have to say "hold the phone cowboy". The numbers don't bear that out. One conference is right there with you SEC...the Big 12.

Yes, the very same Big XII that only has X teams, is currently above you in DPS out-of-conference strength ranking. To start, the Big 12 has a 90% winning percentage in out-of-conference matchups vs. the SEC's 87.5%. (Overall record 27-3 vs. the SEC's 42-6)

Quality OOC wins:

For the Big 12: Iowa, UConn, Pac12 South Champ UCLA, MAC East Champ Ohio, MAC West Champ Northern Illinois, Tulsa, FSU, SMU, Mountain West Champ TCU, Nevada

For the SEC: ACC Atlantic Champ Clemson, UConn, Wake Forest, Cincinnati, GA Tech, PAC-12 probable Champ Oregon, Big East probable Champ West Virginia, Penn State, Texas A&M, LA Tech

OOC Losses:

Big-12: Arizona State, GA Tech, Arkansas

SEC: FSU, Louisville, Boise State, Clemson, BYU, LA Tech

Basically, it's about a wash between these two very good football conferences. So why so many opinions in favor of a dominate SEC? Easy, the system continues to feed on itself. The human pollsters will not forget the past seven years where an SEC team was given a chance in a one-game show and delivered. They won't forget a dominate national TV performance by LSU over Oregon in week 1. They have, however, forgotten a dominate performance by Boise State over SEC East Champ Georgia that same week. The will forget that SEC 3rd-best Arkansas escaped by the skin of their teeth from a Big-12 6th best Texas A&M. The mind forgets and biases..the computer does not. A playoff continues to be required, even in a year like 2011 when one team seems to be "clearly superior" to everybody. It may be true, but it may in fact, be only in your biased memory.

Filed under  //  College Football   The DPS  
Nov 27 / 8:14pm

Conference Strength Shakeup

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DPS Update for Week 13 - Conference strength shakeup...

Thanks in part to the ACC's 1-3 record in inter-conference games against the SEC this past weekend, the ACC has dropped to the 6th rated conference. What that means is if my alma mater Clemson wins the ACC Championship, they would now not get an invite to the playoffs because they would most likely be ranked too low (they are #31 currently). If VT wins, they would still qualify because they are likely to be in the top 15.

After the embarrassing performance against our in-state rival South Carolina this weekend, it will be justice that we (Clemson) would not receive an automatic bid.

Strangely though, if PAC-12 South 'Champion' UCLA somehow finds a way to beat Oregon in the inaugural PAC-12 Championship Game, they would receive an automatic bid despite losing 50-0 to USC this weekend. We all know USC is the real PAC-12 South Champ, and those current kids shouldn't be paying for Reggie Bush's mess.

Here are the current conference strengths with two regular season weeks left:

1) Big 12
2) SEC
3) Big 10
4) Pac-12
5) Big East

..and bring up the rear..

6) ACC
7) Mountain West
8) Conference USA
9) WAC
10) MAC
11) Sun Belt

Here is the latest top 40 in the DPS

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Filed under  //  College Football   The DPS  
Nov 20 / 5:43pm

My loss is better than your loss

I hate this time of year in college football...with all the so-called experts trying to wax poetic about how one division 1-A (a.k.a. FBS) team's unbeaten record, one, or two losses are CLEARLY more impressive than another team's unbeaten record, one, or two losses. Ridiculous. That's one reason I created the "DeSetto Playoff System" computer ranking in 2010, or the DPS. The DPS was designed to eliminate all vestage of opinions and use only facts to select the seeds for a 12 team D-1 college football playoff. In the coming weeks, all seeding will come into clear view.

- The top 4 seeds will be rewarded with a week off and a home first round game. They will be champions of top 5 conferences that played championship games. The top 5 is determined by the computer based on strength of non-conference wins by teams within those conferences. 

- Currently the Big 12 is the #1 rated conference. This is an un-arguable FACT, not my opinion. Their champion would not receive a bye however because they do not play a championship game.

- As expected the SEC is #2 in conference strength, followed by the Big 10, the Big East (surprise), and the ACC. The PAC 12 is close behind in the #6 position.

- Seedings 5-12 for the first round are based roughly on highest position in the DPS computer ranking, with some notable potential exceptions.

- Champions of the top 5 conferences at season's end receive automatic bids and the highest available seeding for round #1. If you're a Champion of a non-top 5 conference, you'll need to be within the top 15 of the DPS ranking at season's end to qualify for the playoffs.

As the season finishes up I'll post the final rankings and teams and seeds as they would've qualified for the playoffs. In the mean time, fans will get all gaa-gaa over qualifying for a relatively meaningless bowl game when they could've been treated to a potential shot at a true National Championship.

For example - hey Wisconsin fans, your game against Penn State this week would not only be for a shot at a Big 10 title and a Rose Bowl berth, but rather a shot at the Big 10 title and a top 5 seed in the National Championship tournament. That would truly be worth a bouquet of roses.

Filed under  //  College Football   The DPS